The Guardian newspaper writes “Traders predict house prices will fall by 50% in 4 years“. This includes 8% drop over the last few months and is in real terms (using RPI of 4% for adjustment). Traders predict approximately 10% drop in prices year on year for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 with rock bottom occurring in 2011.
The IMF has been stating in it’s World Economic Outlook that Australian property prices are the world’s 4th most overvalued just behind the UK. This should be taken as a strong indicator for those of us here in Australia.
I have just today come across two excellent Australian resources.
The bubblepedia front page describes why “It’s a crazy idea to buy a house in Australia at the current prices“, blows away the myth of the housing shortage and answers many common questions to the nay sayers.
The Contrarian Investors’ Journal seems to be a economics commentary with an Austrian Economics slant (i.e. not a mainstream economics viewpoint). I have been on a journey of late into Austrian Economics and Libertarianism. It started with videos such as “Money as debt” and “The money masters” which introduce the little known facts about where money comes from. I’m currently finding free resources from the Mises Institute very interesting. The Contrarian Investors’ Journal provides a much needed Australian perspective as much of the information available about the Austrian/Libertarian economics viewpoint is from a purely American perspective.
Domain.com.au’s article “Property crash not likely” only helps convince me that the bust is already on the way :). ABC’s MediaWatch have reported that the “rental crisis” may not be as bad as all that. Domain’s article does say there’s a “tight rental market” particularly in Brisbane (but it’s Sydney where we have seen all the footage on TV!). It seems however that this is the real estate agents pushing this line in the news. Trying to make the last few easy dollars out of bubble. They say that increasing rents would lead to investors gaining interest again however the rental yields would still be below average even if rents go up 50% over the next 2-3 years! And once the “full employment” myth is blown away that will have it’s affect on confidence along with making future immigrants reconsider their options ;).